OPP and ACT split on tax fairness and crime, but agree on national pride

This is the seventh in our series comparing two parties’ voters head to head, and the first to put OPP across from a party that pitches to a similar kind of voter from the opposite direction. Both parties talk about sensible economics and cutting through red tape; they just start from opposite sides of the compass to get there. The numbers below come from 195 OPP supporters and 43 ACT supporters who answered the KiwiValues survey. OPP’s sample is large enough that its averages are fairly steady. ACT’s is small, so what follows on that side is about which way ACT leans, not exactly how far. A handful of different ACT respondents could shift that average more than the same handful would shift OPP’s.

Every question from the biggest-gap and closest-agreement tables, closest agreement at the top and widest gap at the bottom. n = 195 OPP, 43 ACT.

ACT’s side of this comparison is small, 43 respondents, against 195 for OPP. You can see exactly who has answered so far. Treat every finding on ACT’s side as directional, and lean on the shape of the gap rather than its exact size.

Where the gap is widest

OPP and ACT both talk about a simpler, less regulated state. Where they part ways is what that state should still be paying for and how it should treat people who break its rules. Four questions carry most of that split.

Capital gains tax: an envy tax to ACT, not to OPP

Asked whether a capital gains tax is an envy tax on people who’ve done well, OPP voters disagree clearly, averaging -0.67. ACT voters lean the other way, averaging +0.52. An earlier, much larger round of responses found the same shape: OPP at -0.56, ACT at +0.48.

A capital gains tax is an envy tax on those of us who are successful.

The dot is the group's mean answer; the line spans the middle half of the group's answers, lightly smoothed. n = 238 respondents across both groups.

Rehabilitation versus punishment: a clean opposite

Asked whether we should focus more on rehabilitating criminals rather than punishing them, OPP voters agree, averaging +0.60. ACT voters land on the other side, averaging -0.50, favouring punishment over rehabilitation. An earlier, much larger round found the same direction, though OPP agreed more strongly back then (+0.71) and ACT was close to neutral (+0.25) rather than firmly opposed.

We should focus more on rehabilitating criminals, rather than focusing on punishing them.

The dot is the group's mean answer; the line spans the middle half of the group's answers, lightly smoothed. n = 238 respondents across both groups.

Free school lunches: OPP wants them, ACT doesn’t

Asked whether children in primary education should receive free lunches at public schools, OPP voters agree, averaging +0.53. ACT voters disagree, averaging -0.54. This question wasn’t part of the earlier round, so we can’t say whether the split is new or has held for years.

Children in primary education should recieve free lunches at public schools.

The dot is the group's mean answer; the line spans the middle half of the group's answers, lightly smoothed. n = 238 respondents across both groups.

Western culture’s standing: opposite readings

Asked whether Western culture is undeniably superior to other cultures, OPP voters disagree, averaging -0.53. ACT voters lean the other way, averaging +0.51. An earlier, much larger round found the same direction, though both groups have moved further from neutral since then: OPP was at -0.38, ACT at +0.17.

Western culture is undeniably superior to other cultures.

The dot is the group's mean answer; the line spans the middle half of the group's answers, lightly smoothed. n = 238 respondents across both groups.

A similar shape shows up on the wealth of the rich, on a universal basic income and on whether we’re doing enough about climate change: OPP agreeing, ACT disagreeing, often with a full point or more between the two averages.

Where they agree

Given how far apart OPP and ACT sit on the compass, the questions where they land in about the same place are worth pausing on. Two are about the country itself, two are about what the state should fund and how people live.

Proud to be a Kiwi, both of them

Asked whether they’re proud to be a New Zealander, OPP voters agree, averaging +0.56. ACT voters agree too, averaging +0.45, a gap of just +0.12 despite the two groups sitting on opposite sides of the compass everywhere else in this piece. An earlier, much larger round found the same closeness: OPP at +0.59, ACT at +0.55.

I am proud to be a New Zealander.

The dot is the group's mean answer; the line spans the middle half of the group's answers, lightly smoothed. n = 238 respondents across both groups.

Country right or wrong: a shared, qualified no

Asked whether they’ll always support their country regardless of whether it’s right or wrong, both groups disagree. OPP voters average -0.54, ACT voters average -0.37. Pride in the country doesn’t translate into backing it no matter what, for either group. An earlier, much larger round found the same shape: OPP at -0.59, ACT at -0.48.

I will always support my country, regardless of whether it is right or wrong.

The dot is the group's mean answer; the line spans the middle half of the group's answers, lightly smoothed. n = 238 respondents across both groups.

Preventive healthcare: both want the system to lean that way

Asked whether the public healthcare system should prioritise funding preventive care to reduce long-term costs, OPP voters agree strongly, averaging +0.73. ACT voters agree too, a bit more mildly at +0.49. This question is newer, asked to a smaller slice of each group (128 OPP, 37 ACT), so treat the direction as solid and the exact size as less certain.

Our public healthcare system should prioritize funding for preventive care to reduce long-term costs.

The dot is the group's mean answer; the line spans the middle half of the group's answers, lightly smoothed. n = 165 respondents across both groups.

Religion, personally: both lean away from it

Asked whether religion is very important to them personally, both groups lean toward disagreeing. OPP voters average -0.60. ACT voters average -0.36, a milder lean with a wider spread of answers. This question wasn’t part of the earlier round either, so there’s no earlier reading to compare it against.

Religion is very important to me.

The dot is the group's mean answer; the line spans the middle half of the group's answers, lightly smoothed. n = 238 respondents across both groups.

Government protecting your rights, more civic education and building more apartments and townhouses land close together too, ACT usually a touch more muted than OPP but on the same side of neutral in every case.

How sure are we

OPP’s sample is 195 respondents, big enough that its averages above are fairly settled. ACT’s is 43, small enough that a handful of different answers could shift its side of any gap more than you’d like. We only call a gap robust when the two groups’ confidence intervals don’t overlap, and every gap in the widest-gap section above clears that bar. The agreement findings are a softer read: landing on the same side of neutral isn’t the same statistical test, so treat those as a shared lean rather than proof the two groups think alike.

We checked every shared question against an earlier, much larger round of responses. Every finding above that has an earlier reading held its direction in that round too, including the two questions where both groups moved further apart since then, rehabilitation and Western culture. As with every post in this series, the current sample is self-selected and skews younger and further left than the country as a whole, which matters more here given how small ACT’s slice of it is. You can see exactly who has answered so far.

For how the compass and this kind of comparison are built, see the methodology page.

Want to see where your own answers land? Take the survey at kiwivalues.nz.