Labour voters sit left of centre and say New Zealand handled COVID well

Part 1 of 3: What Labour voters think

Step 1 of 15

Most people in this survey sit left of centre

Each hexagon is a small area of the compass. A brighter hexagon holds more people. An area with only a few people stays empty.

The crosshair is the political centre. It is the average of the party dots, weighted by each party's share of the 2023 vote. About four in five of the 854 people sit left of it, so this survey leans left.

Step 2 of 15

Labour voters spread out, but most sit left of centre

163 of these people would vote Labour today. Their hexagons now show in the Labour colour.

The ellipse holds about three fifths of them (57%). It is wide, because Labour voters do not all answer the same way.

Step 3 of 15

The Labour dot sits close to the OPP dot

The Labour dot is the average position of Labour voters.

42% of Labour voters sit nearest the Labour dot, and the rest sit nearer another party's dot. This is common: a party dot is an average, and only 45% of OPP voters sit nearest the OPP dot.

Step 4 of 15

What sets Labour voters apart

These are the statements where Labour voters take a clear side, few of them take the other side, and their average answer is furthest from everyone else's. Labour voters say New Zealand handled COVID well (94% agree); reject the idea that the government itself threatens their liberties (87% disagree); say Māori culture is important to New Zealand (98% agree); want more international unions like the EU (58% agree); and reject calling a capital gains tax an envy tax (87% disagree). Only the first clears the usual bar for a clear gap; on the other four, their average answer sits only a little further their way than everyone else's. On almost every other statement, their average answer sits close to everyone else's.

On none of these do they clearly go further than both OPP and Greens voters, whose dots sit nearest. OPP voters lean the same way, about as strongly or more, on three of these (government and liberty, international unions and capital gains tax), and Greens voters on four of these (COVID, Māori culture, international unions and capital gains tax).

Each arrow shows how far one of them moves the Labour dot away from everyone else's average.

Step 5 of 15

No single statement puts Labour voters where they are

Start at the pale ring, where someone neutral on every statement sits, and add each statement's pull as one link, big ones first, with the ones that pull back fitted in along the way. The chain ends next to the Labour dot, at the average of the Labour voters in this survey.

The longest link, on marriage, makes less than a tenth of the chain. The thick links are the statements from step 4. Together they make only about a seventh of it, so many small pulls make the rest.

Step 6 of 15

On the third axis, Labour voters lean only a little toward "more left on culture"

This axis compares a person's economic views with their culture views. Compared with most people, Labour voters' culture views are further left than their economic views. Their bar overlaps everyone else's a lot.

Step 7 of 15

What Labour voters nearly all agree on

On these five statements, almost all Labour voters are on the same side. Each bar shows the share who disagree, are neutral or agree.

98% agree that Māori culture is important to New Zealand. 94% agree that New Zealand handled COVID well. 91% agree that the market cannot protect the environment without rules.

93% disagree that marriage can only be between a man and a woman. 91% disagree that public schools should instil religious values.

Step 8 of 15

Labour voters split on STEM funding and respect for authority

An average can hide a split. On these three statements, Labour voters are on both sides. Each bar shows the share who disagree, are neutral or agree.

43% agree that STEM should get more school funding than the arts, and 40% disagree. 39% agree that authority should always be respected, and 43% disagree.

On whether capitalism is the best economic system, the two sides are close: 40% agree, and 37% disagree.

Step 9 of 15

Nine in ten Labour voters disagree that New Zealand is on the right track

One question asks about the country today: is New Zealand on the right track? Each bar shows how a group answered, from strongly disagree on the left to strongly agree on the right.

89% of Labour voters disagree, and 34% disagree strongly. Everyone else mostly disagrees too (79%), and about as strongly: 37% strongly disagree, and 8% agree.

Too few Labour voters agree to show each answer on its own, so the dashed part of their bar holds all three.

Part 2 of 3: How Labour voters choose

Step 10 of 15

Two in five Labour voters also voted Labour in 2023

Each ribbon is a group of people. The left side is how they voted in 2023, and the right side is how they would vote today. We draw only the ribbons into or out of Labour.

37% of today's Labour voters also voted Labour in 2023. Most of the rest voted OPP (19%), voted Green (17%), did not vote (11%) or voted National (7%).

Of the people who voted Labour in 2023, 54% would vote Labour again. 26% now pick the Greens and 21% pick OPP or give another answer.

Many more people here say they voted OPP in 2023, and many fewer National, than the real result shows.

Step 11 of 15

Four in five Labour voters also rank the Greens in their top three

The survey asks people to rank their top three parties. 162 Labour voters did this, and 80% of them put Labour first.

The pale bar is the share who put a party anywhere in their top three. The solid bar is the share for whom that party is the next choice after Labour.

81% put the Greens in their top three, and for 60% the Greens are the next choice. OPP is in the top three of 57%, and the next choice for 30%. National and Te Pāti Māori are each in the top three of 17%. National is the next choice for 9%.

Very few rank ACT or the New Conservative Party.

Step 12 of 15

Three in four people rank Labour in their top three, about four times as many as would vote for them

This step turns the last one around. It asks who puts Labour in their top three.

Each square is 1 in 100 people who ranked parties. 20 in 100 would vote for Labour today. 75 in 100 put Labour somewhere in their top three.

90% of Greens voters, 70% of OPP voters, about 40% of National voters and about 30% of NZ First voters rank Labour in their top three. Very few ACT voters do.

This survey leans left, so 75% may differ from what New Zealand as a whole would give.

Part 3 of 3: Who Labour voters are

Step 13 of 15

More Labour voters earn $40,000 to $80,000 a year

26% of Labour voters earn $40,000 to $80,000 a year, against 19% of everyone else. Fewer earn under $40,000: 22%, against 30%.

Step 14 of 15

More Labour voters live in Wellington

55% of Labour voters live in Wellington, against 40% of everyone else. Fewer of them live elsewhere in the South Island: 6%, against 13%.

Wellington is over-represented in this survey: 40% of everyone else here live there. The area comes from the electorate people gave, so people on the Māori roll are not in it.

Step 15 of 15

Where do you sit?

Answer the same 60 statements and see where your own dot lands among the party dots. It takes about ten minutes.

Take the survey