Climate and environment: where the parties agree and split on the NZ political compass

This is the fourth in the series that looks at one policy topic at a time instead of putting two parties side by side, after housing and cities, tax and wealth and welfare and work. Climate and environment holds five statements: whether the market can be trusted to protect the environment, whether New Zealand is doing enough about climate change, whether the national grid should be 100% renewable, whether mining and drilling are worth it even when they harm the environment, and whether the government should subsidise rooftop solar.

The numbers below come from 722 responses split across six parties’ voters: 249 Greens, 199 OPP, 159 Labour, 44 NZ First, 43 ACT and 28 National. Rooftop solar subsidies were added to the survey later than the other four statements, so fewer respondents have answered it yet, and ACT and National fall below the bar needed to plot their voters on that one statement. Every party clears the bar on the other four.

The sample leans left out of all proportion. Among respondents who named which party they voted for at the last election, Greens, OPP, Labour and Te Pāti Māori together make up 80% of the answers, against 44% of the actual 2023 party vote, and National voters are badly under-represented, about 7% of named votes here against 38% of the real result. The ACT, NZ First and National figures below rest on a few dozen people each, not a settled picture of what those parties’ voters think about climate and environment. The sample composition page charts the skew against the Electoral Commission’s result and updates as responses arrive.

Subsidise rooftop solar comes closest to a shared position. Not doing enough on climate is the sharpest split in the topic.

Each dot is a party's mean answer on the nine-point agreement scale. Rows run from the narrowest party spread to the widest. n = 249 Greens, 199 OPP, 159 Labour, 44 NZ First, 43 ACT, 28 National. A party is left off a statement's row when too few of its voters answered it: 'Subsidise rooftop solar' (ACT, National).

As with every piece in this series, this is a self-selected sample that skews younger and more online than the country as a whole, so treat it as directional, not a poll. ACT, NZ First and National are the smallest groups here, at 43, 44 and 28 respondents, so read their numbers as direction rather than exact position. You can see exactly who has answered so far.

Section 1 of 6

Where the parties split hardest

The widest gap in the whole topic is over whether New Zealand is doing enough about climate change. Greens voters are close to unanimous, 98% agreeing for a mean of +0.89, with OPP (+0.67) and Labour (+0.67) both firmly on the agree side too. ACT is clearly opposed, more strongly than NZ First, which also disagrees. National leans against too, but more mildly, with a sizeable minority still agreeing. This is the clean two-bloc split the series has seen before: left bloc agreeing something more needs doing, right bloc disagreeing, ACT most strongly.

We aren't doing enough about climate change.

The dot is the party's mean answer; the line spans the middle half of the party's answers, lightly smoothed. n = 722 respondents across 6 parties.

Mining and drilling, even where they harm the environment, is nearly as wide a gap, and this is the statement where National lines up with ACT and NZ First rather than splitting from them. ACT voters are clearly in favour, most agreeing, and National and NZ First both agree too, though less strongly. On the other side, Greens voters are strongly opposed, -0.66 with 86% disagreeing, and Labour (-0.26) and OPP (-0.31) both disagree on balance, though a quarter of each still agrees mining is worth the harm.

Mining and drilling are necessary for New Zealand’s economic future, even if they harm the environment.

The dot is the party's mean answer; the line spans the middle half of the party's answers, lightly smoothed. n = 722 respondents across 6 parties.

Section 2 of 6

Where the parties come closest

National splits away from ACT and NZ First on two statements: environmental regulation and the renewable grid. On whether the market can be trusted to protect the environment, ACT is the only party that disagrees on balance, while National agrees, a position closer to Labour (+0.67) than to its usual right-bloc company. NZ First also lands on the agree side here.

The market cannot be trusted to protect the environment and therefore regulations are necessary.

The dot is the party's mean answer; the line spans the middle half of the party's answers, lightly smoothed. n = 722 respondents across 6 parties.

A 100% renewable grid shows the same pattern. National is close to a coin flip, while ACT and NZ First are both clearly opposed. Greens, OPP and Labour all agree strongly, between +0.53 and +0.71.

Our national energy grid should be 100% renewable.

The dot is the party's mean answer; the line spans the middle half of the party's answers, lightly smoothed. n = 722 respondents across 6 parties.

The closest the topic comes to a shared position is subsidising rooftop solar panels and home batteries. Among the four parties with enough answers to plot, Greens (+0.75), OPP (+0.56) and Labour (+0.61) all agree strongly, 92% of Greens voters, 89% of OPP voters and 89% of Labour voters agreeing. NZ First, on its own small sample so far, is close to evenly split rather than clearly for or against. ACT and National voters have not answered this newer statement in large enough numbers yet to plot, so it is not known whether they would join NZ First or break further apart.

The government should directly subsidise rooftop solar panels and home batteries so more households can afford to install them.

The dot is the party's mean answer; the line spans the middle half of the party's answers, lightly smoothed. n = 202 respondents across 4 parties. ACT and National are left off: too few of their voters answered this statement.

How many in each party agree

Each bar is 100% of that party's voters who answered this statement, split into those who disagree (any strength), sit neutral, or agree (any strength). n = 202 respondents across 4 parties. ACT and National are left off: too few of their voters answered this statement.

Section 3 of 6

A renewable grid and mining pull the parties furthest apart together

Of the ten possible pairs among this topic’s five statements, a 100% renewable grid against mining and drilling separates the six parties furthest when both statements go on one plot, further than either statement manages alone. The two statements correlate at r = -0.51 across everyone plotted: a party that wants more mining tends to be cooler on a fully renewable grid, and vice versa, which is exactly the shape that makes the two together spread the parties out.

Dots are party means; the ellipse spans the middle half of each party's answers on both statements, lightly smoothed. This pair separates the six parties further together than either statement does on its own. Across everyone plotted the two correlate at r = -0.51.

Section 4 of 6

Which statements move together

Across everyone who answered, the strongest pair in the topic is whether New Zealand is doing enough about climate change against a 100% renewable grid, r = +0.66. Rooftop solar correlates almost as strongly with both of the other pro-action statements, +0.61 and +0.60. Mining sits apart from the other four, correlating negatively with each of them, as the one statement in the topic where agreement means the anti-environment position.

As with the earlier posts in this series, a correlation measured across the whole sample partly reflects the gap between parties rather than anything happening inside them. Within Greens voters alone, the topic’s strongest pair falls from +0.66 to +0.37, and averaged across all ten pairs the within-Greens correlations differ from the whole-sample ones by 0.21. Climate and environment looks like one coherent dimension mostly because the parties are so far apart on it, not because individual voters treat the five statements as one question.

Each cell is the correlation between two statements over respondents who answered both. Diagonal cells are each statement against itself and carry no number.

Section 5 of 6

Where climate and environment sits on the compass

All five statements pull mainly left-right, which blends economic and social views rather than being purely one or the other, and barely at all up or down. Whether New Zealand is doing enough about climate change carries the strongest left-right pull of the five, a 100% renewable grid is close behind, and mining pulls the other way, toward the right, since agreeing with it is the statement’s anti-environment position. Rooftop solar carries the topic’s only noticeable pull toward the libertarian end of the second axis, though it is still a small fraction of its left-right pull.

Each highlighted line is one statement's loading, direction and length; the faint lines are every other statement in the survey for context. The crosshair at the centre is the political centre; positive loadings on the second axis point toward the libertarian, bottom end of the live compass.

Section 6 of 6

How sure are we

Three of these six groups are large enough that their averages are fairly settled: Greens (249), OPP (199) and Labour (159). NZ First, ACT and National are much smaller, so read those three as direction rather than exact distance throughout, especially on rooftop solar, where NZ First’s own answers split close to evenly and ACT and National do not have enough respondents to plot at all yet.

For how the compass and this kind of breakdown are built, see the methodology page.

Want to see where your own answers land? Take the survey at kiwivalues.nz.