This is the third post in the series, after Who votes Greens and Who votes Labour. The subject this time is The Opportunity Party: 196 OPP supporters who answered the survey, the second largest group of any party here. It is a good sample for one party, though still a self-selected group that skews younger and more online than the country as a whole, so read the shapes below as directional rather than as a poll. Where ACT, NZ First or National come in for comparison their samples are much smaller (43, 43 and 27 respectively), so those show direction, not exact distance.

One caveat matters more than the rest for this post. The sample leans left out of all proportion: among respondents who named a party they voted for in 2023, Labour, the Greens, Te Pāti Māori and OPP together make up 81% of the answers, against 44% of the actual party vote that year, and National-leaning respondents are close to absent. OPP's real support is not confined to that side of politics, and a good share of it comes from people who would otherwise lean National, so the 196 OPP supporters here are likely one slice of the party's base rather than the whole of it. Our own numbers are consistent with that: only 13 of them land nearest a party to the right of centre. Read what follows as a profile of the OPP voters this survey reaches, not of everyone who votes OPP. The sample composition page charts the skew against the Electoral Commission's result and updates as responses arrive.

Where OPP voters sit on the compass

OPP supporters Other parties, live position LEFT RIGHT AUTHORITARIAN LIBERTARIAN Greens, live position Greens Labour, live position Labour ACT, live position ACT NZ First, live position NZ First National, live position National OPP, live position (n = 196) OPP
n = 196. The ellipse spans one standard deviation each way from the group's mean position; the ringed dot is the position the live compass shows for OPP, other parties' live dots are shown muted for comparison.
Section 1 of 7

Where OPP voters sit

On the live compass OPP sits left of centre and below the line, on the libertarian side: an x of −1.91 and a y of +0.42, on a compass where 0 is the political centre in both directions. It is a moderate position on the left-right axis rather than a strongly left one, paired with a clear libertarian lean.

The 196 respondents behind that dot spread around it by 1.40 units left-right and 0.94 units up-down. Their own average lands on the live dot almost exactly, five hundredths of a unit away, so the group's centre has settled rather than still moving with each new response.

Section 2 of 7

How spread out OPP voters are

How spread out OPP voters are

Left-right position Greens n = 234 Greens: mean -3.31, middle half -4.12 to -2.63, 5th to 95th -5.11 to -1.30 (n = 234) OPP n = 196 OPP: mean -1.88, middle half -2.81 to -0.95, 5th to 95th -4.01 to +0.31 (n = 196) Labour n = 155 Labour: mean -1.86, middle half -2.79 to -1.03, 5th to 95th -3.98 to +0.08 (n = 155) ACT n = 43 ACT: mean +3.07, middle half +2.52 to +3.67, 5th to 95th +1.28 to +4.66 (n = 43) NZ First n = 43 NZ First: mean +2.41, middle half +1.22 to +3.84, 5th to 95th +0.18 to +4.79 (n = 43) National n = 27 National: mean +1.74, middle half +0.60 to +2.69, 5th to 95th -0.22 to +3.54 (n = 27) LEFT RIGHT 0 Authoritarian-libertarian position Greens n = 234 Greens: mean +0.10, middle half -0.35 to +0.58, 5th to 95th -1.16 to +1.24 (n = 234) OPP n = 196 OPP: mean +0.40, middle half -0.11 to +1.06, 5th to 95th -1.18 to +1.92 (n = 196) Labour n = 155 Labour: mean -0.09, middle half -0.67 to +0.49, 5th to 95th -1.77 to +1.50 (n = 155) ACT n = 43 ACT: mean +0.83, middle half +0.12 to +1.55, 5th to 95th -0.69 to +2.61 (n = 43) NZ First n = 43 NZ First: mean -0.49, middle half -1.31 to +0.40, 5th to 95th -1.93 to +0.92 (n = 43) National n = 27 National: mean -0.01, middle half -1.03 to +0.69, 5th to 95th -1.39 to +2.13 (n = 27) AUTHORITARIAN LIBERTARIAN 0
The thick line spans the middle half of OPP supporters' scores on each axis; the thin line is the 5th to 95th percentile range. The other parties are shown muted, for scale. n = 196 for OPP.

OPP voters are the least concentrated of the three large groups on the left-right axis. Their middle half runs from about −2.8 to −1.0, a wider band than either of the other two, and wider again than ACT's, which is the tightest left-right band of the six parties we can measure.

On the authoritarian-libertarian axis their middle half runs from about −0.1 to +1.1, so three quarters of them sit on the libertarian side of the line or within a whisker of it. That is the clearest thing the compass says about this group: not that they are far left, which they are not, but that they lean libertarian fairly consistently.

Section 3 of 7

Where OPP voters differ most from everyone else

Where OPP voters differ most from everyone else

OPP supporters Everyone else Land value tax Land value tax: OPP +0.52, everyone else -0.04 (gap +0.56) Universal basic income Universal basic income: OPP +0.65, everyone else +0.22 (gap +0.43) Coalitions worse than majorities Coalitions worse than majorities: OPP -0.44, everyone else -0.19 (gap -0.25) Rehabilitate rather than punish Rehabilitate rather than punish: OPP +0.60, everyone else +0.36 (gap +0.24) Capital gains tax is an envy tax Capital gains tax is an envy tax: OPP -0.67, everyone else -0.47 (gap -0.20) Citizens' assemblies Citizens' assemblies: OPP +0.63, everyone else +0.45 (gap +0.19) More unions like the EU More unions like the EU: OPP +0.38, everyone else +0.20 (gap +0.18) Should be able to own a firearm Should be able to own a firearm: OPP -0.01, everyone else -0.18 (gap +0.17) Not doing enough on climate Not doing enough on climate: OPP +0.67, everyone else +0.51 (gap +0.16) Build more apartments Build more apartments: OPP +0.64, everyone else +0.48 (gap +0.16) Restrict genetic modification Restrict genetic modification: OPP -0.14, everyone else +0.01 (gap -0.15) Increase foreign aid Increase foreign aid: OPP +0.13, everyone else -0.00 (gap +0.13) Strongly disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly agree
Dots are each group's mean answer; the line is the gap between them. 'Everyone else' is every other respondent in this left-leaning sample, not the general population. n = 196 OPP supporters.

This is where the group stops being moderate. The widest gap between OPP voters and every other respondent is on a land value tax: they average +0.52 on it, against −0.04 for everyone else, and 81% of them agree with it. No other group we can measure on it comes close. Greens voters sit barely above neutral on the same statement, Labour voters almost exactly on it, and NZ First voters well below. It is a policy OPP has campaigned on for years, and it is the single clearest marker of an OPP voter in this data.

A universal basic income is the second widest gap and rests on firmer ground, since every respondent answered it: OPP voters average +0.65 against +0.22 for everyone else, and that is the strongest support for a UBI of any group in the survey, Greens voters included. Tax policy, not the compass, is what makes this group distinct.

At the other end, several statements barely tell OPP voters apart from everyone else: whether the justice system discriminates, whether immigrants should adopt New Zealand values, and whether pornography should be prohibited. On those they look like the survey's respondents in general.

Section 4 of 7

What unites and splits OPP voters

What OPP voters agree and split on among themselves

Most united (lowest spread) Market can't protect environment Market can't protect environment: mean +0.71, sd 0.34, middle half +0.48 to +0.90 (n = 196) Build more apartments Build more apartments: mean +0.64, sd 0.36, middle half +0.41 to +0.87 (n = 196) Māori culture is important to NZ Māori culture is important to NZ: mean +0.69, sd 0.37, middle half +0.45 to +0.90 (n = 196) Religious values in public schools Religious values in public schools: mean -0.78, sd 0.38, middle half -0.93 to -0.59 (n = 196) House prices must come down House prices must come down: mean +0.61, sd 0.39, middle half +0.37 to +0.86 (n = 68) Citizens' assemblies Citizens' assemblies: mean +0.63, sd 0.39, middle half +0.39 to +0.88 (n = 196) Rehabilitate rather than punish Rehabilitate rather than punish: mean +0.60, sd 0.41, middle half +0.39 to +0.86 (n = 196) Don't fund unprofitable museums Don't fund unprofitable museums: mean -0.62, sd 0.41, middle half -0.88 to -0.41 (n = 196) Most divided (highest spread, feelings not neutral) Regulate AI even if it slows innovation Regulate AI even if it slows innovation: mean +0.32, sd 0.59, middle half -0.09 to +0.78 (n = 196) Religion is important to me Religion is important to me: mean -0.60, sd 0.57, middle half -0.91 to -0.41 (n = 196) Billionaires are selfish hoarders Billionaires are selfish hoarders: mean +0.30, sd 0.57, middle half -0.11 to +0.76 (n = 196) Nothing to hide, nothing to fear Nothing to hide, nothing to fear: mean -0.37, sd 0.57, middle half -0.79 to +0.01 (n = 196) Mining even if it harms environment Mining even if it harms environment: mean -0.31, sd 0.56, middle half -0.73 to +0.13 (n = 196) Land value tax Land value tax: mean +0.52, sd 0.54, middle half +0.23 to +0.88 (n = 68) Shorter work week Shorter work week: mean +0.45, sd 0.51, middle half +0.18 to +0.80 (n = 196) Western culture is superior Western culture is superior: mean -0.53, sd 0.50, middle half -0.86 to -0.25 (n = 196) Strongly disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly agree
Dot is the group's mean answer; the line spans the middle half of the group's answers, lightly smoothed. The divided list is filtered to statements where the group's average is at least 0.3 away from neutral, so the ranking reflects genuine internal splits rather than statements the group mostly shrugs at. n = 196 OPP supporters answered most of these statements.

Among themselves, OPP voters agree most tightly that the market on its own will not protect the environment (95% of them agree), that Māori culture is important to New Zealand (94%), that we should build more apartments and townhouses in our cities (92%), and that public schools should stay out of instilling religious values. For a party often described as technocratic, the things its voters are surest about are not technical at all.

Their real internal splits are on regulating AI even where that slows innovation, on how important religion is to them personally, on whether billionaires are selfish hoarders of excess wealth, and on "if you have nothing to hide, you have nothing to fear". The billionaires one is the most interesting of those: the group averages +0.30, but 62% agree and 22% disagree, so the average hides a genuine argument rather than a settled view.

Section 5 of 7

Who OPP voters are

The demographic shape of OPP voters

OPP supporters Whole sample Age (n = 186) 18 to 24 18 to 24: OPP 16%, whole sample 20% 16% / 20% 25 to 34 25 to 34: OPP 30%, whole sample 35% 30% / 35% 35 to 44 35 to 44: OPP 24%, whole sample 22% 24% / 22% 45 to 54 45 to 54: OPP 12%, whole sample 12% 12% / 12% 55 to 64 55 to 64: OPP 9%, whole sample 6% 9% / 6% 65+ 65+: OPP 9%, whole sample 4% 9% / 4% Gender (n = 192) Man Man: OPP 79%, whole sample 68% 79% / 68% Woman Woman: OPP 19%, whole sample 28% 19% / 28% Education (n = 193) High school High school: OPP 9%, whole sample 14% 9% / 14% Some tertiary Some tertiary: OPP 26%, whole sample 22% 26% / 22% Bachelors (undergraduate) Bachelors (undergraduate): OPP 36%, whole sample 36% 36% / 36% Postgraduate Postgraduate: OPP 25%, whole sample 22% 25% / 22% PhD PhD: OPP 3%, whole sample 3% 3% / 3% Household income (n = 193) <$40,000 <$40,000: OPP 27%, whole sample 29% 27% / 29% $40,000-$80,000 $40,000-$80,000: OPP 19%, whole sample 21% 19% / 21% $80,000-$120,000 $80,000-$120,000: OPP 23%, whole sample 24% 23% / 24% $120,000-$180,000 $120,000-$180,000: OPP 23%, whole sample 17% 23% / 17% >$180,000 >$180,000: OPP 9%, whole sample 9% 9% / 9% Living situation (n = 193) Own with mortgage Own with mortgage: OPP 38%, whole sample 33% 38% / 33% Live with Family Live with Family: OPP 18%, whole sample 20% 18% / 20% Rent privately Rent privately: OPP 12%, whole sample 17% 12% / 17% Rent with group Rent with group: OPP 14%, whole sample 16% 14% / 16% Own mortgage-free Own mortgage-free: OPP 15%, whole sample 11% 15% / 11%
Share of respondents in each category, OPP supporters against the whole sample. Categories with too few OPP respondents to be meaningful are left off the chart rather than shown with an unreliable share. Blank answers are excluded from every denominator, on both sides of each bar. n = 196 OPP supporters.

Two demographic differences stand out, and both run the same way. OPP supporters are the most male of the three large groups here: 79% men and 19% women, against 68% and 28% across the whole sample. And they are the oldest: 18% of them are 55 or over, against 8% of Greens voters and 4% of Labour voters.

Income and housing follow that older profile. Households between $120,000 and $180,000 are 23% of OPP voters against 17% of the sample, owning mortgage-free is 15% against 11%, and renting privately is 12% against 17%. This is a settled, established group rather than the survey's younger renting end.

Section 6 of 7

Which other party OPP voters land closest to

Which other party OPP voters land closest to

OPP OPP: 46% of OPP supporters land nearest this party's live dot 46% Greens Greens: 24% of OPP supporters land nearest this party's live dot 24% Labour Labour: 23% of OPP supporters land nearest this party's live dot 23% National National: 4% of OPP supporters land nearest this party's live dot 4% NZ First NZ First: 2% of OPP supporters land nearest this party's live dot 2% ACT ACT: 1% of OPP supporters land nearest this party's live dot 1%
Share of OPP supporters whose nearest live party dot, in the compass's own stretched frame, is each party. n = 196.

Run every OPP supporter's own position through the site's nearest-dot matching, the same logic that tells a respondent which party they are closest to, and 46% land nearest OPP's own dot. The rest divide almost evenly between the two parties on either side of it, 24% and 23%, with a handful landing nearest National, NZ First or ACT.

That is a middling own-party share, higher than the last post's subject managed and well below the Greens'. It reflects where the dot sits rather than anything about the voters: this part of the compass is crowded, and a group spread 1.40 units wide left-right will overlap its neighbours whatever it believes about tax.

Section 7 of 7

How sure are we

196 respondents is a good sample for one party's voters, so the findings about OPP voters themselves are on firm ground. The comparisons with ACT, NZ First and National, at 43, 43 and 27 respondents, are the weak links: a few different respondents in those groups would move their averages more than the same few would move OPP's.

The land value tax statement is newer than most, so it rests on about a third of this group rather than all of it, and on similarly sized groups for the parties it is compared against. The direction of that gap is clear and large. The exact size of it is the part to treat as provisional, and the same applies to the house prices statement in the agreement chart. Statements without enough of a party's voters behind them are left off the charts entirely rather than drawn with an unreliable average.

The demographic breakdown and the "differs most from everyone else" figures both compare OPP voters against the rest of this sample, which leans left of the country and skews younger and more online. A gap measured against that baseline is a real feature of this sample, but it is not the same claim as a gap against the general population.

For more on who has answered the survey so far, see the sample composition page. For how the compass and this kind of profile are built, see the methodology page.

Want to see where your own answers land? Take the survey at kiwivalues.nz.